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Increased gun violence in Sweden

A study of gun violence trends in the criminal milieu since the mid-2000s. English summary of Brå report 2024:7

This study examines gun violence trends in the criminal milieu since the mid-2000s, analysing how the criminal milieu has changed and what role these changes may have played in gun violence trends.

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About the publication

Author
Henrik Angerbrandt, Mariana Dufort och Victor Dudas
Other information
© Brottsförebyggande rådet 2025
urn:nbn:se:bra-1201
Report 2024:7

Summary

Shifts in the criminal milieu can impact gun violence

In the mid-2000s, the number of gun violence injuries began to increase, as did the number of deaths from gun violence in the criminal milieu. At that time, the criminal milieu involving gun violence was largely dominated by hierarchically organised groups that had clear, established guidelines on the use of firearms, including who should use them.

In the early 2010s, however, gun violence shifted from being linked to hierarchically organised criminal groups to being associated more with groups based in different residential areas. This shift was linked to changes in the drug market, where territorial control over drug sales became increasingly important. These groups, although still hierarchical, differed from earlier organisations in terms of structure, and the use of violence was no longer as strictly regulated. This shift resulted in gun violence increasingly targeting individuals who were not in leadership positions, and not necessarily sanctioned by the group. It was more frequently driven by individual motivations.

The latter half of the 2010s saw further fragmentation within the criminal milieu. Neighbourhood-based groups continued to dominate gun violence in the criminal milieu, but they were not as defined by their neighbourhood as before, following splits that emerged in several localities. Gun violence became more common in personal conflicts, shifting from being more confined to the struggle for group dominance. This period also saw the emergence of a new type of well-planned shootings. Several groups started to use gun violence as a source of income, contributing to an increase in firearm-related deaths.

The transition into the 2020s marked a further disintegration of group cohesion. The criminal milieu became more individualistic, with more groups and increased geographical mobility among them. A new type of perpetrator emerged: young persons, sometimes in their early teens, with little direct involvement in the conflicts triggering the violence. These individuals did not always have strong personal stakes in the disputes but were often recruited to carry out violent acts, driven by the promise of status and money. Compared to previous periods, there seems to have been a devaluation of the status of executing certain types of shootings, with younger individuals with limited experience from the criminal milieu taking in these tasks.

Regional differences

Although lethal gun violence in the criminal milieu steadily increased nationwide between 2005 and 2023, there are regional variations. Malmö and Gothenburg experienced their most intense periods of shootings in the 2010s. While Stockholm also saw an increase in gun violence during this period, it has not seen the subsequent decline observed in other metropolitan areas. Instead, gun violence in Stockholm has continued to increase, reaching its highest levels in the 2020s. The increase in other regions of the country outside of the metropolitan areas began later, and the national increase in gun violence since 2018 can be attributed to the trend in Stockholm, together with an increase in the rest of the country outside of the metropolitan areas.

Changing dynamics of gun violence

From the mid-2000s until the 2020s, the characteristics of gun violence has changed, not only in terms of scale but also in how it is carried out, who the perpetrators are and who is targeted. Gun violence in the early 2000s was characterised by isolated events, but over time, it has become increasingly linked to prolonged conflicts. As the scope of gun violence expanded, more people in the criminal milieu have become involved in gun violence, both as victims and perpetrators. In the 2000s, gun violence was typically the work of individual perpetrators, and those targeted were primarily leading figures. But with the changes in the criminal milieu, a wider range of individuals have become both targets and perpetrators. By the 2020s, shootings have increasingly been carried out by younger individuals who have been distanced from the instigators, and it has become more common for people outside the criminal milieu, primarily relatives, to be targeted.

The number of individuals involved in a shooting has also increased over time. In the mid-2000s, shootings were typically carried out by a lone perpetrator who planned the act independently. In the early 2010s, shootings often involved groups of individuals targeting other groups. In the second half of the 2010s, a new type of shootings emerged, where smaller groups carried out attacks with specific roles assigned to each participant. In the 2020s, there has been several examples of shootings carried out by a single (young) perpetrator, but where the shooting has been planned and orchestrated by individuals in-between the instigator and the perpetrator.

Individuals involved in gun violence increasingly younger

Interviews conducted for this study reveal that teenagers have been in close proximity to gun violence during the whole studied period. In the earliest period, their involvement was limited to tasks such as storing weapons, rather than carrying out the actual shootings. In the first half of the 2010s, when lethal gun violence escalated, it was primarily among individuals aged 20 to 29 that the increase of both injured and deceased by gun violence occurred. In the second half of the 2010s, teenagers were increasingly both victims and perpetrators. This trend continued into the 2020s, with a growing number of teenagers being suspects in cases that included gun violence, and more teenagers also deceased from gun violence.

The changes in the criminal milieu from hierarchical organisations to neighbourhood-based groups, and later, to more fragmented criminal milieus, has led to new types of individuals becoming involved in gun violence. In the 2010s, young people from the neighbourhoods with criminal groups became increasingly involved in the criminal milieu, attracted by romanticised portrayals of a criminal lifestyle, on digital platforms and social media. Since then, young individuals have continued to be involved in gun violence by carrying out assignments for established criminals in order to gain status and money.

Brå’s assessment

This study provides an extensive overview of the changing nature of the criminal milieu over time. Brå’s assessment of measures are based on the report’s overall conclusions on how gun violence trends can be linked to conflicts and a changed dynamic in the criminal milieu. A more detailed analysis of the assessments is included in the report’s concluding discussion.

Improve clearance rates

The study highlights that a low clearance rate is a factor that may have made it more difficult to curb gun violence. Police engagement with local communities, such as confidence building efforts in vulnerable areas, may be crucial for improving investigative outcomes. The study also highlights the importance of improved cooperation within the Swedish Police Authority in developing a more proactive approach to combating gun violence. Formalised knowledge-sharing within the Authority can contribute to improving both clearance rates and crime prevention efforts, not least with regard to the increasing geographical diversity and mobility of criminal groups. However, Brå stresses that when the instigators are more distanced from shootings and the perpetrators have no previous links to the conflict, there is a risk that it is not enough to prosecute the perpetrator for de-escalating a conflict if the individuals intensifying the conflict are not prosecuted as well.

Reduce supply of firearms to the criminal milieu

Access to firearms is a prerequisite for gun violence to occur. The report shows that firearm has been widely accessible throughout the study period, but with an increase in the late 2010s in the use of converted weapons, accessed through importation of separate parts from countries without license-requirements for such parts. It is important to have a structured approach to combat the illegal supply and importation of firearms, in order to increase the possibilities for follow-up and evaluations of these efforts. It may also require international dialogue in parallel with effective border control and enforcement.

Reduce recruitment of young persons as perpetrators

One of the most significant changes since the mid-2000s is the involvement of increasingly younger persons in gun violence. Brå considers that continued efforts to increase knowledge and preparedness to counteract the involvement of children and young individuals in the criminal milieu are crucial. It is also important to highlight and identify the risk of other vulnerable groups being exploited for criminal purposes.

Adapting measures to counteract gun violence to changing trends

This study demonstrates that gun violence in the criminal milieu is not static. It evolves over time, in terms of both its scope and its execution. To effectively combat gun violence, measures, including preventive efforts, must be based on thorough understanding of the criminal milieu and its changing dynamics. Strategies and interventions need to adapt to these evolving conditions in order to be effective.

About the study

This report presents a study, carried out by the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention (Brå) on behalf of the Swedish Government, focusing on the increase of gun violence in Sweden. The study examines gun violence trends in the criminal milieu since the mid-2000s, analysing how the criminal milieu has changed and what role these changes may have played in gun violence trends. The report draws on a variety of sources, including registers, focus groups with police employees, interviews with individuals with experience of the criminal milieu, and decrypted chats among criminals.