Trends in sentencing volume and sentence lengths

Both the length of prison sentences and sentencing volume increased, particularly from 2017 onwards

The average sentence length per imprisonment judgment has increased over the period studied. Initially, the increase was gradual, from 8 to 9 months between 2012 and 2016, but from 2017 onwards this trend accelerated, reaching just under 14 months by the end of the period. This increase, coupled with a higher number of imprisonment judgments, has resulted in the total sentencing volume increasing by 62 per cent since 2012, reaching approximately 11,200 years of imprisonment in 2022. The main explanation for the increase is a large number of legislative changes.

The 2016 sentencing reform increased the average sentence length for drug offences and smuggling by almost 2 months

After remaining at a steady level during the period 2012–2015, the average sentence length for drug offences and smuggling rose two times, first during 2016–2018 and then during 2019–2022. At the end of the period, it stood at approximately 19 months, compared with around 14 months at the start of the period.

The number of judgments and the number of imprisonment judgments for drug offences and smuggling remained at a relatively stable level between 2012 and 2016. However, both have increased significantly since 2017, with almost 20,000 judgments and 2,300 imprisonment judgments delivered in 2022. As a consequence of the longer sentence lengths and the increased number of imprisonment judgments, the total sentencing volume generated by drug offences and smuggling has risen considerably since 2016. By 2022, it had doubled compared with ten years earlier.

On 1 July 2016, harsher penalties were introduced for drug offences and smuggling, meaning that certain offences previously classified as serious are now classified as exceptionally serious, with significantly higher minimum sentences in the range of penalties. The time series analysis results show that the sentencing reform led to the average sentence length for drug offences/smuggling increasing by 1.7 months compared with what might have been expected based on trends prior to the harsher penalties.

Fewer imprisonment judgments, but longer sentence lengths, for violent offences

Judgments and imprisonment judgments for violent offences are significantly less common at the end of the period than at the beginning. Nevertheless, the total sentencing volume for violent offences has increased gradually since the mid-2010s, which can be explained by the fact that the average sentence length has increased, from an average of 15 months to approximately 26 months.

Legislation on violent offences has been amended twelve times between 2011 and 2022, resulting in both harsher penalties and an expansion of the scope of criminalisation. The time series analysis examines three of the legislative changes implemented. On 1 July 2013, the minimum sentence for gross violation of integrity and gross violation of a woman’s integrity was increased, and the scope of criminalisation for both offences was expanded. The time series analysis shows that the average sentence length increased by 3.3 months following the legislative change compared with what might have been expected based on the trend prior to the change. On 1 July 2017, new penalty ranges entered into force for serious violent offences. This entailed increases in the minimum sentence for a range of different types of offences. The sentence length increased by an average of 7.3 months following the harsher penalties compared with the trend prior to the change.

The third legislative change examined, which entered into force on 1 January 2022 and relates to violation of integrity, restraining orders and unlawful stalking, had no significant impact on sentence length.

Clear reduction in imprisonment judgments for appropriative offences (excluding robbery)

The average sentence length for appropriative offences (excluding robbery) varied between 4 and 5 months during the period. The number of imprisonment judgments for appropriative offences (excluding robbery) fell from around 2,100 at the start of the period to just over 1,500 at the end. This explains the decline in sentencing volume for appropriative offences (excluding robbery) from about 800 years of imprisonment in 2011 to under 600 years of imprisonment in 2022.

On 1 March 2021, a harsher penalty was imposed for burglary. Sentence length varied at a slightly higher level after this date. However, the time series analysis shows that the increase is not statistically significant when compared with the trend prior to the change.

Decrease in number of imprisonment judgments for driving under the influence

Around one in three convictions of driving under the influence (DUI) results in a prison sentence. This is partly because this type of offence is considered such a danger to society that prison sentences are imposed even where the offence is deemed to have a low penal value (categorised as “an offence of such a nature that there is a presumption of imprisonment”). The sentence length for these offences has remained at a relatively stable level for most of the study period, at around 1.5 months. The sentencing volume of DUI offences has decreased, which can be explained by the fact that the number of imprisonment judgments fell between 2011 and 2016, followed by both increases and decreases but without reaching the initial higher levels. There have been no legislative changes related to DUI offences during the period studied.

Prison sentences for sexual offences rose sharply from the mid-2010s onwards, and sentence lengths increased significantly as a result of two key legislative changes

Following a slight decrease between 2011 and 2015, the number of judgments and imprisonment judgments for sexual offences has generally increased continuously since 2016. In 2022, there were just over 1,100 judgments and 400 imprisonment judgments, which is almost double the figure for 2015.

The proportion of prison sentences in convictions for sexual offences has varied between 29 and 41 per cent. The average sentence length remained relatively stable at 25–27 months until 2018, but increased to 30–31 months during the period 2019–2021, and further to 36 months in 2022.

The sentencing volume decreased between 2011 and 2016, before rising rapidly for the remainder of the period, leading to more than a doubling by the end of the period.

Legislation on sexual offences was amended six times during the period. The time series analysis examined the effect of two legislative changes on sentence length. On 1 July 2018, the so-called Consent Act was introduced, which entailed major changes to the provision regarding rape. The time series analysis shows that the average sentence length increased by 4.1 months following the legislative change compared with the trend prior to it. The harsher penalties imposed for a number of sexual offences, which entered into force on 1 August 2022, led to a further increase in sentence length by 9.3 months.