Homicide in Sweden since 1990

Increase in Sweden but not in other Nordic countries

In order to initially locate the trend in Sweden in a broader context, data on deaths due to lethal violence, as registered in the National Board of Health and Welfare’s National Cause of Death Register have been compared with equivalent data from Denmark, Finland and Norway. It has previously been shown that the decrease in homicides noted throughout the Nordic region (as in the rest of the Western world) since the 1990s shifted to an increase in Sweden sometime around 2013. The analyses presented in this report – which for these cause of death data focus on the period 2000-2022 – show that this increase has continued in Sweden. In the other Nordic countries, the previous decrease has levelled off over the past decade. The greatest decrease was seen in Finland, where levels were particularly high during the 1990s. It is also clear that the increase in Sweden is almost exclusively due to firearm homicides, and that no similar increase has been observed in the rest of the Nordic region. Temporary fluctuations can be seen in homicides involving knives or other sharp objects, but there is no clear trend over the period since the turn of the millennium. This is true of all the Nordic countries except Finland, where there has been a gradual decrease in lethal knife violence. However, homicides involving other types of violence – such as blunt objects, strangulation or physical force – have continued to decrease throughout the Nordic region.

Firearm homicides now more common than knife homicides in Sweden

The review of the material from the Swedish criminal justice system shows that the most recent data collection period – 2018-2021 – was the first in which firearms constituted the most common means of homicide (40 per cent), since Brå started collecting research data on homicide during the 1990s. However, homicides involving knives, which previously constituted the dominant means of lethal violence, are still almost as common. According to the latest statistics for 2022 and 2023 (Brå 2024c), the number of firearm homicides continues to increase, while the level of homicides involving knives has remained unchanged. In a longer-term perspective, i.e. over the past three decades, no trend can be seen in knife homicides in Sweden, when population growth is taken into account, despite periodic increases and decreases. In terms of absolute numbers, however, there has been a slight increase over the last ten years.

Increase in the number of gun homicides in the criminal milieu

The results show that the increase in lethal firearm violence, which has now been ongoing for almost two decades, is strongly concentrated to incidents in the criminal milieu. In the most recent period for which data have been collected – 2018-2021 – lethal violence in the criminal milieu accounted for 34 per cent of all homicides. With a few exceptions, these homicides were by firearms – with knives being used in only a few cases (4 per cent). The offences often take place at night in public places, and there are clear links to drug abuse among those involved. However, the analyses show that an increasing number of incidents in the criminal milieu have occurred in homes, and also during the daytime. In other words, homicides in the criminal milieu are increasing even in contexts where they were previously less common. For example, an increase can be seen even outside Sweden’s metropolitan counties.

A majority of homicides still occur outside the criminal milieu

Despite the marked increase in homicide incidents in the criminal milieu, two-thirds of all homicides in Sweden still occur in other contexts. Even with regard to firearm homicides, almost 20 percent occurred in other contexts. Although family-related homicides have been decreasing for some time, they still account for a quarter of the total. The majority of these incidents involve partner violence, and the previous decrease in these cases appears to have levelled off somewhat.

One category that is nearly as extensive as homicide in the criminal milieu involves cases that can be described as homicides in connection with spontaneous fights and other disputes. These include a number of different types of incident, but the common denominator is that the deaths have been a result of violent acts committed in the heat of the moment in connection with a spontaneous conflict, often linked to alcohol or drugs. One sub-category involves lethal violence among people who are drug addicts or members of other marginalised groups. Other examples include conflicts linked to intoxication and nightlife, youth violence or conflicts involving jealousy. Homicides in connection with spontaneous fights and other disputes comprised the single most common category of homicide in the early 1990s. A clear decrease then followed, which was replaced by a new increase during the second half of the 2010s. Since then, the level has been higher but stable. Generally speaking, the links between drug use and homicide have also increased, and a slight increase in alcohol-related cases can also be observed in recent years (after a long period of decline).

Six of ten deceased women were victims of partner homicide

In 2018-2021, most homicides involved male-to-male incidents (six of ten cases). However, in 23 per cent of homicide incidents, the victim was a woman or a girl. Women are usually killed in their own homes, typically by a family member or a close acquaintance or friend. Nearly six of ten female victims had been killed by their current or former partner, with jealousy and separation often being the underlying motives. At the same time, partner violence accounts for a small proportion of homicides against men (4 per cent). Instead, men are more often killed by someone they only know superficially or do not know at all, and the offences typically occur outdoors, usually in a street environment. There are often links to conflicts in the criminal milieu when men are killed (43 per cent) and while some women are also killed in connection with conflicts in the criminal milieu, this is unusual (4 per cent of cases involving female victims).

Increasing number of teenage boys and young men among homicide victims

As regards the victims, a particularly large increase has been noted since 2013 in homicides against men aged 15-29, which reflects the increase in the number of firearm homicides in the criminal milieu. At the end of the period examined, the number of deaths in this group were at very high levels – both historically in Sweden and compared to other countries – with 42 deaths per million inhabitants in 2021. This can be compared with estimates for Europe as a whole, which in 2021 corresponded to 28 male homicide victims per million inhabitants in the same age category (UNODC 2023).

As regards female victims, an overall decrease can be discerned, but the trends vary somewhat between different age categories. A special analysis focusing on minors in Sweden shows that homicides against boys under the age of 18 have increased over the past ten years, while the trend is stable for girls in the same age group. In other words, there has been a change in the age distribution among both female and male victims, but the clearest trend involves the increase among boys and young men. In 2018-2021, women who were subjected to lethal violence were generally older than men (median ages were 40 and 27, respectively).

Fewer known perpetrators

The clearance rate for homicides has traditionally been high, but there has been a decrease over time. Brå’s analyses show that the decrease only applies to cases in the criminal milieu, while the clearance rate for other types of homicide remains unchanged, or has possibly even increased somewhat in recent years. A total of 26 per cent of all homicides in the criminal milieu in 2018-2021 have been cleared, with one or more individuals being linked to the act of violence itself. If cases in which it has only been possible to prosecute someone for complicity or instigation are also included, the clearance rate rises to 30 per cent. There are strong indications that young men, typically those involved in homicides in the criminal milieu, are largely absent from the study’s analysis of perpetrators.

With this caveat in mind, it can be noted that there are relatively few women among homicide perpetrators, 5–10 per year – a number that has remained stable since the 1990s. By contrast, the number of male homicide perpetrators has increased. In 2018-2021, women accounted for 10 per cent of all perpetrators in cases where it was possible to link a perpetrator to the offence. As with the victims, these women were generally older than the male perpetrators (median ages were 40 and 29, respectively).

Divergent trends at the end of the period

After a lengthy period from the early 1990s in which different types of homicide followed a similar declining trend, trends relating to different types of homicide have recently become somewhat divergent. It is no longer possible to conclude that while homicides in the criminal milieu are increasing, other forms of homicide continue to follow a declining trend. In several categories, the decrease has levelled off. Nor does the homicide trend follow the trend for non-lethal violence. There does seem to have been an increase in cases of serious violence, in which the victim has been treated for knife or firearm injuries, but there is no indication that less serious violence has increased. This can be seen in data from both the National Patient Register, surveys of self-reported victimisation and police reports. On the whole, this means that homicides cannot be viewed as an obvious indicator of violence in general, which is an issue that has been a topic of debate in the violence research.